| Sports betting experts often can make a | | | | 20 road games, they haven't won or lost |
| killing by being able to spot an upset. | | | | more than 2 games in a row ATS. |
| Why do they make money from an upset? | | | | What's all this add up to? Atlanta is |
| Because they often play the "money line" | | | | vulnerable for a let down, and Detroit |
| on underdogs. This means that they may | | | | is just bad enough to lull Atlanta into |
| make $200-$600 for every $100 they bet | | | | a sense of complacency. Look for the |
| on the underdog. | | | | Lions to stay in this game, 23-21. |
| Here's an example of my analysis of two | | | | So what was the final score? Detroit |
| NFL football games where I was able to | | | | trounced Atlanta, 30-14. |
| spot an upset that was about to take | | | | Minnesota at San Francisco +4 1/2 |
| place. Notice the thought process that | | | | This game is very similar to the Atlanta |
| went into analyzing these games, and how | | | | Detroit game. Minnesota has been |
| anybody interested in sports betting | | | | historically inconsistent, and SF is |
| could have made money from these games: | | | | playing the role of the home dog. |
| Atlanta at Detroit +5 | | | | Minnesota most recently got crushed by |
| I know what you're thinking… how | | | | New England on Monday night, and they've |
| in the world can you think Detroit can | | | | even lost to the hapless Bills earlier |
| hang with Atlanta? Simple. Detroit by | | | | in the year, 17-12. Minnesota also has |
| default has had to pass the ball a lot | | | | the reputation of being strong at home |
| this season, averaging over 250 yards a | | | | and poor on the road. Is that rep |
| game, and Atlanta's pass defense is | | | | deserved? |
| lousy. This fact alone is enough to | | | | Probably. Minnesota is much stronger at |
| make me think that Detroit will be able | | | | home, going 13-7 SU and 12-8 ATS while |
| to keep this game close, if not win | | | | only playing .500 ball on the road |
| outright. | | | | during the same period. In other words, |
| More importantly, Atlanta has just come | | | | the Vikings look like playoff contenders |
| off two very emotionally draining wins | | | | whenever they play at home, but turn |
| against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. | | | | into an average team on the road. |
| Don't underestimate the "let down" | | | | Meanwhile, SF has been bad this year, |
| factor in this game. Plus, Detroint has | | | | but they've still been able to pull out |
| played very tough at home this season, | | | | two games straight up at home, beating |
| beating Buffalo when the Bills came into | | | | Oakland and the Rams. |
| town favored, and only losing to the | | | | But the real interesting stat relating |
| defending NFC Champion Seahawks 9-6. | | | | to this game is that Minnesota has |
| Also, don't forget that in Atlanta's | | | | traditionally played very poorly against |
| last road game before they beat the | | | | the NFC West teams, going only 7-13 ATS. |
| Bengals they laid an egg in New Orleans, | | | | I look for Minnesota to be in a battle |
| losing 21-3 to the Saints. If there's | | | | down the the final seconds of this game, |
| one thing that's characterized Atlanta | | | | with SF maybe even coming out on top, |
| in the last few years (say 30 maybe?) is | | | | 30-27. |
| that they're inconsistent. Want numbers | | | | And what do you think the final score in |
| to back that up? In their last twenty | | | | this game was? How about this: San |
| games, Atlanta has not won or lost more | | | | Francisco won outright, just as I |
| than two games in a row ATS. And it | | | | predicted, 9-3. |
| doesn't matter whether Atlanta is | | | | How much money do you think sports |
| playing at home or away. In their last | | | | betting pros made on these games? |