| Sports betting experts often can make a | | | | What's all this add up to? Atlanta is |
| killing by being able to spot an upset. Why | | | | vulnerable for a let down, and Detroit is |
| do they make money from an upset? Because | | | | just bad enough to lull Atlanta into a sense |
| they often play the "money line" on | | | | of complacency. Look for the Lions to stay |
| underdogs. This means that they may make | | | | in this game, 23-21. |
| $200-$600 for every $100 they bet on the | | | | |
| underdog. | | | | So what was the final score? Detroit |
| | | | trounced Atlanta, 30-14. |
| Here's an example of my analysis of two NFL | | | | |
| football games where I was able to spot an | | | | Minnesota at San Francisco +4 1/2 |
| upset that was about to take place. Notice | | | | |
| the thought process that went into analyzing | | | | This game is very similar to the Atlanta |
| these games, and how anybody interested in | | | | Detroit game. Minnesota has been |
| sports betting could have made money from | | | | historically inconsistent, and SF is playing |
| these games: | | | | the role of the home dog. Minnesota most |
| | | | recently got crushed by New England on Monday |
| Atlanta at Detroit +5 | | | | night, and they've even lost to the hapless |
| | | | Bills earlier in the year, 17-12. Minnesota |
| I know what you're thinking… how in the | | | | also has the reputation of being strong at |
| world can you think Detroit can hang with | | | | home and poor on the road. Is that rep |
| Atlanta? Simple. Detroit by default has had | | | | deserved? |
| to pass the ball a lot this season, averaging | | | | |
| over 250 yards a game, and Atlanta's pass | | | | Probably. Minnesota is much stronger at |
| defense is lousy. This fact alone is enough | | | | home, going 13-7 SU and 12-8 ATS while only |
| to make me think that Detroit will be able to | | | | playing .500 ball on the road during the same |
| keep this game close, if not win outright. | | | | period. In other words, the Vikings look |
| | | | like playoff contenders whenever they play at |
| More importantly, Atlanta has just come off | | | | home, but turn into an average team on the |
| two very emotionally draining wins against | | | | road. |
| Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Don't | | | | |
| underestimate the "let down" factor in this | | | | Meanwhile, SF has been bad this year, but |
| game. Plus, Detroint has played very tough at | | | | they've still been able to pull out two games |
| home this season, beating Buffalo when the | | | | straight up at home, beating Oakland and the |
| Bills came into town favored, and only losing | | | | Rams. |
| to the defending NFC Champion Seahawks 9-6. | | | | |
| | | | But the real interesting stat relating to |
| Also, don't forget that in Atlanta's last | | | | this game is that Minnesota has traditionally |
| road game before they beat the Bengals they | | | | played very poorly against the NFC West |
| laid an egg in New Orleans, losing 21-3 to | | | | teams, going only 7-13 ATS. I look for |
| the Saints. If there's one thing that's | | | | Minnesota to be in a battle down the the |
| characterized Atlanta in the last few years | | | | final seconds of this game, with SF maybe |
| (say 30 maybe?) is that they're inconsistent. | | | | even coming out on top, 30-27. |
| Want numbers to back that up? In their last | | | | |
| twenty games, Atlanta has not won or lost | | | | And what do you think the final score in this |
| more than two games in a row ATS. And it | | | | game was? How about this: San Francisco won |
| doesn't matter whether Atlanta is playing at | | | | outright, just as I predicted, 9-3. |
| home or away. In their last 20 road games, | | | | |
| they haven't won or lost more than 2 games in | | | | How much money do you think sports betting |
| a row ATS. | | | | pros made on these games? |
| | | | |